Marlon Rando
Well-Known Member
Tax dollar$ @ work.. But we're in this together..
Follow da $$$...
Follow da $$$...
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Personally, having a tough time maintaining weight in isolation. It seems those gout-safe treats purchased on errands were a bigger part of the diet than previously thought. Now, need the healthier, vegan version of Ensure to keep weight on.
...But what does a positive antibody test mean? It means you should feel confident that you can work, shop and socialize without getting sick or infecting others, right?
Not so fast.
The confidence that we should have in antibody tests depends on a key factor that is often ignored: the base rate of the coronavirus. The base rate is the actual amount of infection in a known population. In the United States, that appears to be between 5 percent and 15 percent.
This simple fact is essential to understanding the accuracy of an antibody test. Yet overlooking this fact is also one of the most common decision-making errors made, so much so that it has its own name: the base rate fallacy.
Here’s an example. If you took an antibody test that was 90 percent accurate, and it determined that you had coronavirus antibodies, how confident should you be that you actually have those antibodies?
Most people say about 90 percent...
But the predictive value of an antibody test with 90 percent accuracy is 32 percent if the base rate of infection in the population is 5 percent. Put another way, there is an almost 70 percent probability in that case that the test will falsely indicate a person has antibodies.
The reason for this is a simple matter of statistics. The lower prevalence there is of a trait in a studied population — here, coronavirus infection — the more likely that a test will return a false positive. While a more accurate test will help, it can’t change the statistical reality when the base rate of infection is very low...
So what does this mean as the country begins to open?
Mostly it means we have to educate ourselves to safeguard our own health. And it means that we’re all at risk of getting infected and spreading the virus, even if we’ve had a positive antibody test.
Tax dollar$ @ work.. But we're in this together..
Follow da $$$...
I feel really bad for everything and the experience in comfort I have experienced?@ataxian.. They love their acronyms don't they?
It's rather nauseating tbh this whole thing.
Que the piano music "we're in this together"
Last night I fell apart physically!@ataxian hows PhD studies going to work out with Daughter now?? Curious, I know my former Culinary School -(CIA) may close doors permanently due to low enrollment, not enuf $$ to keep the gears grinding. It's the nu abnormal A.
We all need to be considerate of others, just my opinion.
You are so wonderful!Sadly, an increasingly unpopular opinion in the US. These are times when "everyone for themselves" is a recipe for disaster, but many would rather trust internet trolls than the evidence of their own senses and the science built upon it.
Recall getting measles and other vaccines as a child. At the time, no one questioned that there was such a thing as common interest and that eradicating infectious diseases was in it. Of course, people also walked on the moon in those days. How far we've fallen.
I remember back in the day parents would have chicken pox party’s for their children so they wouldn’t get it.
What UNIVERSITY did you get your Medical Degree?You could also look at this sort of behavior as a precursor to vaccination. Physicians practiced something similar in centuries past. But there was already widespread immunity in the population. It was unlikely (but possible) that a chicken pox party would precipitate a devastating outbreak. Without that immunity, it's much more likely that COVID parties would worsen the situation.
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